The palaeoclimatic potential of recent oak tree-ring width chronologies from southwest Ukraine

Abstract

Better insights into spatio-temporal climate signals are needed to understand more clearly the applicability to palaeoclimatic analysis and dendrochronological dating of the long tree-ring oak chronologies currently being compiled in Eastern Europe. This study investigates the climate sensitivity of two recent oak tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies from Transcarpathian and Ciscarpathian Ukraine and their coherence with 35 oak chronologies from Ukraine, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and Hungary. The new Transcarpathian chronology consists of 247 TRW series of living trees from 13 sites covering the period 1836-2020, while the new Ciscarpathian chronology consists of 215 TRW series from 13 sites and spans the period 1775-2020. Despite the strong similarity between these two chronologies, their responses to climate differ significantly. Growing-season precipitation and particularly drought (three-month SPEI index) were found to be the primary drivers of oak growth on the border between the Carpathians and the northeastern Pannonian Basin. Spatial correlations of the Transcarpathian chronology show particularly high explained variability in the April-August SPEI index, roughly between 18.5-28.5oE and 45-52oN. In the Ciscarpathian, June precipitation primarily influenced oak radial growth but the spatial correlation was quite low. While the Transcarpathian TRW chronology was strongly correlated with eastern Slovakian and northwestern Romanian chronologies, the Ciscarpathian chronology revealed very low correlations with surrounding chronologies. This study indicates the great dendroarchaeological and palaeoclimatic potential of the Transcarpathian chronology and points to the need to analyse additional living trees from the Ciscarpathian region to understand the spatial variability of oak growth and its climate signal better.