The Impact of Natural Disturbances on the Central European Timber Market-An Analytical Study

Abstract

Central European countries are strategic wood exporters in the European and international wood trade. In the context of wood exporters, Czechia, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, and Austria are the important countries providing the development and stability of the forestry and wood sector. The share of these countries' exports in total EU exports represents more than 52% of the volume of wood exported over 5 years. After the Netherlands, the five mentioned countries recorded the highest increase in roundwood production of all EU and EFTA countries in the years 2000-2022 (from 46% (AT)-126% (CZ)), and the European average is 26%. The last decade has been characterised by a significant destabilisation of the Central European timber market as a result of natural disturbances linked to climate change, which also threatens the long-term competitiveness and preservation of this sector in the economic systems of national economies. The article provides an analytical insight into the historical development of natural calamities and their macroeconomic consequences in Central European countries. The data forecast an unfavourable development of the timber market in Europe caused by the ongoing calamity situation, the pricing policy of the timber trade, the oversaturation of the market with lower-quality calamity timber, insufficient processing capacities for primary processing of wood and its use in secondary processing, and, last but not least, the limited stock of timber in the coming years in selected Central European countries (due to an extreme increase in harvesting plans within the last 5 years, with consequences that will be felt in the coming decade). For the continued economic function of forests and the availability of wood supply for future generations, the current evolution of calamities in forest ecosystems is critical, and long-term strategic measures based on empirical data are necessary. The information presented in this paper can serve as a tool for the objectification of strategic decisions in the development of forestry policies in selected countries.