Synchronization of economic cycles in countries of the Visegrad Group, Germany and Eurozone

Abstract

Most countries of the Visegrad group presently undertake meticulous preparation for entry to the Eurozone, which makes the issue of business cycle synchronization contemporary. In this study, we identified business cycle in V4 member states, Germany and the Eurozone and investigated the degree of business cycle synchronization among V4 countries, with Germany and the Eurozone. Quarterly GDP data, season and calendar adjusted from 1995: 1 through 2016: 4 (T = 88) were broken down to trend and cyclical elements by the Hodrick-Prescott filter and used to obtain the relative output gap. Phases of the business cycle were identified through modified BBQ algorithm. Business cycle synchronization was quantified with Pearson correlation coefficient, concordance index and Mink similarity index calculated separately for time segments before EU accession in 2004 and after. Tests of statistical significance were carried out, where relevant. In the period before EU enlargement, few economic cycles were correlated weakly, but many were not synchronized at all or were even negatively correlated. After EU accession, the cycles became closely synchronized among V4 countries or between V4 state and Germany or Eurozone. Although the degree of correlation between V4 countries and Eurozone is not as strong, as for Germany and Eurozone, it is obvious that V4 countries are becoming increasingly prepared for adopting Euro, as their currency, with respect to the requisite of economic cycle synchronization.