Identifying Suitable Restoration and Conservation Areas for Dracaena cinnabari Balf.f. in Socotra, Yemen

Abstract

We examine the distribution of Dracaena cinnabari, the Socotran Dragon's Blood Tree, an endangered species endemic to the island of Socotra (Yemen)-and we propose an accessibility approach to its conservation, taking the proximity of local communities and land users into account. Using the present occurrence of D. cinnabari, we applied a machine learning algorithm (random forest classifier) to estimate the potential distribution of the species across the island (overall validation accuracy of 0.91) based on available climatic and physiographic parameters. In parallel, we used an accessibility methodology to generate a map of the energy cost of accessing potential areas from the villages. This community-focused accessibility map, combined with the potential distribution map of Dracaena cinnabari, could contribute to decision-making processes related to long-term ecological restoration and reforestation activities. With our case study, we wish to emphasize that user-focused efforts and the implementation of sustainable land practices should play key roles in conserving endangered tree species.